We investigate dependable AI systems and how intelligence, engineering and Canada's resources could expand productive capability. Read the methods, results and questions still open.
CANADIAN CENTURY / NATIONAL PRODUCTIVE TRANSFORMATION
Initial research program
What could Canada become?
Bring resources, human expertise, AI, robotics and industry together at national scale. Determine what is feasible, what it costs and how benefits reach Canadians.
First note · 15 October 2026: Canadian industry baselines and an executable manufacturing model. Achievable national gains remain unestimated.
How large could Canada's productive transformation be? Read the magnitude requirements, engineering limits, competing strategies and unfinished household account.
A selected accounting comparison reconciled; manufacturing source claims examined; a complete production-and-cost comparison still missing. Achievable national and household gains remain unestimated.
No accepted repairs in either arm. This trial could not tell us whether guidance improves repair quality.
We compared an agent reviewing its own work with an agent receiving evidence guidance. Most attempts stopped before a proposed repair could be tested.
The useful result is a problem with the experiment: we need to separate interface recovery from code-repair quality before drawing an efficacy conclusion.
One circle per run. Grouped counts, not trial sequence. These are failures in this apparatus, not a general verdict on AI ability.
Method, evidence, and limits
What was compared?
Sixteen matched pairs across eight tasks in one repository. Each arm had 16 runs and four decisions per run. Self review produced zero candidate evaluations; evidence guidance produced one. Neither arm produced an accepted repair.
What prevented a clean comparison?
The runner intentionally exposed an older source hash while a current read was available. Twenty-three runs exhausted that recovery protocol; eight responses failed the exact response format. The one evaluated candidate failed six assertions. Thirty-one runs never reached candidate evaluation.
What can we conclude?
This was a negative end-to-end engineering pilot. Steering efficacy remains inconclusive. No general ability, economic advantage, or live adoption follows. A successor would need a separately frozen, interface-qualified design with positive and negative controls.
Where does the evidence come from?
GLEE produced the original trial and a later AI-assisted audit. That audit reconciled the original 32 terminal runs, source and oracle hashes, and captured calls without restarting subjects. This public edition was prepared with AI assistance (Codex) and retains the source-report hash and observation date. Private trajectories and tests are not available here; independent reproduction and scientific validation are not established.
These dated engineering cases show how an apparently sensible mechanism can answer the wrong question. Their observations apply to the named cases and windows.
ENGINEERING CASE · 2026-07-24
Does a status label tell us what a system can actually do?
A health field answered a different question than the one callers were asking, and the label was accurate the whole time.
What happened, what changed, and what remains open
Local inference pool unloads its backend after 300s idle and reports status down with no resident model.
It swaps a model back in on the next request: a live call returned content with swap_occurred true and 501ms swap latency while health still read down.
A fuel check gated on status == healthy, so five minutes of quiet flipped the whole estate to no-local-reasoning.
Downstream jobs fell through to a cloud path with no key and skipped. Skips were recorded as ordinary outcomes, so nothing alarmed for 34 hours.
Change: Gate on capability rather than the label: reachable, swap-capable, models registered, queue not saturated. Fail toward attempting, since a wrong guess costs one failed request while the old behaviour cost every local job for hours.
Limit: Down remains correct as a description of residency. The fix is on our side of the contract, not theirs. Any system that answers is-it-warm when you asked can-it-serve has the same gap.
Can a safeguard make a wrong answer look more convincing?
A constraint a weak generator can satisfy without being correct will be satisfied without being correct.
What happened, what changed, and what remains open
To stop a model altering our figures we required every grounded number to appear verbatim in generated copy.
The model stopped altering numbers and began inventing the sentences around them: a fabricated version, a fabricated user count, a fabricated success rate, all wrapped around genuine figures.
Before the guard, ungrounded output showed as wrong numbers, which are trivially detectable. After it, ungrounded output showed as correct numbers in false context, which passes automated checks and reads as more credible.
Change: Add a check for figures appearing with no claim attached, and keep generated drafts human-reviewed rather than auto-published.
Limit: This catches recitation, not falsehood. A confident lie in clean prose still passes. Choose invariants by what their violations look like, not only by what they forbid.
Follow-up questions raised by these records. They are directions for investigation, not claims that a new experiment is running.
01
How do we test guidance without testing the interface at the same time?
Establish positive and negative controls for reading and applying a current source before comparing repair strategies.
02
Which observation actually predicts whether a system can serve us?
Separate reported state, available capability, and a measured result under actual operating conditions.
03
How do we verify a claim when its numbers are correct?
Check what a figure supports, including the surrounding proposition and evidence, rather than its presence alone.
04 / Keep the evidence close
Every result has a boundary.
The study and cases above keep methods, observations, decisions, sources, and limits together. An engineering result is not automatically a scientific finding.
This is the 12 October 2026 public edition. Source dates and limits are recorded alongside each result.